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<------------------return to Abington Citizens home
POPULATION CONFUSION
THE NUTSHELL
of what is below is that you are being TOLD by your Comprehensive Plan team
that, per the DVRPC population forecast for 2045 you need to build to
accommodate 2,911 new people in Abington by 2045 --- but………… nothing could be
further from the truth. What they SHOULD have truthfully told you is that it is
their goal ( not ours ) to add thousands of people to Abington’s population.
But they also aren’t telling you that the way they are going about it will lead
to far, far more than the 2,911 that they say they are planning for. And they
also aren’t telling you that once the Comprehensive Plan passes, it will be too
late to change that dynamic.
There ARE only
2 ways the population is going to increase in Abington
1) Families
in their current homes expand more than they shrink
...
an increase that will require NO additional homes. These families already HAVE
a home, so if babies are born, or kids move back home, no new units are needed.
They might add a bedroom, or family room or convert the garage for Aunt Edna.
2)
WE BUILD NEW
HOMES … YUP- THAT INCREASES THE POPULATION ....
A LOT MORE
and increases the traffic, the # of students (at over $20K for each) , the need for services, etc.
etc. etc.. When we add units in the township - we are actually
asking new people to move here. Someone will advertise to entice them to
buy or rent these new units. But our Township
is already 98% built up and has the second highest density in all of Montgomery
County already
(
Chapter 5 p7)
. Why would we want to do that?
BUT WE ARE TOLD WE HAVE 2,911 PEOPLE
TO ACCOMMODATE
BY
2045. SO, I SOUGHT TO UNDERSTAND
HOW THAT FORECAST IS CALCULATED ….
DVRPC is the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission – and I was told they
provided the population forecast that told us there will be 59,083 people in Abington
by 2045. That was 2,911 more people than we had in 2020. A
combination of my communication with them and what is written in Chapter 7 of
the Comprehensive Plan gives this “simplified” understanding of the process they
underwent to arrive at that 2,911 number :
1) First they counted properties where
units have been approved
see Chpt 7 pt 2 p2
2) Then added properties that have the
right to build and might build using
acreage
Chpt 7 pt 2 p2
3) Then added properties that Montco
Planning Commission told them they might otherwise approve
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A GIANT ERROR!
But
DVRPC’s former
forecast for 2020 of
56,172
was used as our
current (or as our 2020)
population. That number is off by
2,330 – so…Uh oh -quite a mess.
It's clear
Abington actually approved way more housing than they told DVRPC they were going
to approve when DVRPC was making its predictions last time around. 2,330 more . And
guess what folks -
Abington looks very much poised to do
that again -
in spades,
this time. I'm pretty sure they can't even control the
number they will be "enabling".
Given the mistakes are pretty evident right in their
own document, in charts, for instance, like this one below found
on
p6 in Chapter 5,
it is stunning to think that neither our professional Planner nor Comr Thompson, nor any others on the Comp Plan team caught the error. Didn’t any of them read
the document they were creating and approving?
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____________________________________________________________________
TO FIND MY COMP PLAN CHAPTER REFERENCES
Any Chapter 5
references above or below are
found here :
https://www.abingtonpa.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/17065/637755822044300000
Any Chapter 7 part 2 references
can be found here:
https://www.abingtonpa.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/17119/637794238158770000
___________________________________________________________
SO WHAT’S THE TRUTH?
First: let’s fix the error.
Our correct 2020 population per the
Census is
58,502 .
Next: They took the 2045 projection of 59,083 and subtracted the
erroneous 56,172
to get the
population increase
of
2,911
that they said we
“needed to accommodate”.
The sky is
falling – we have 2911 more people coming by 2045 and not enough places for them
to live. Hurry! Let’s build … lots and lots .
Where are those people? Lined up at a gate?
There is no one
waiting, except developers who think our greenspace would look better paved
over.
So let’s correctly subtract
58,502 from 59,083 DVRPC said we would have in 2045. You’d get 581.
Not 2,911. And guess
what? Toll Brothers is planning to build 150 senior carriage homes at St
Basil’s. That will be 300 or more -
and we already have enough
other
ones approved or in the hopper to have fulfilled the mission completely, in their
way of thinking ( that we
had to build enough units to accommodate the forecast of 59,083
by 2045) .
So Hurray! Happy Day! Without doing anything we will have exceeded the
2045 number needed.
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DECEPTION
So OK,
if you’re trying to figure out if using the
wrong figure for the 2020 existing populationthat was really just shoddy work – or purposeful
deception….. ?
Well, remember
that the process had 2 parts .
1) they had to figure out their population forecast for 2045 ( excluding alien
spaceship drop-offs) and then……
2) they had to try to convince you that you had to build to that number to
accommodate all those folks….
That should give you your answer. And the overt deceptions in their answers to
individual residents confirms it further ---- and the stunning list of ways
they have sought to keep the information from the public kind of tells the rest
of the story. They have refused to video the meetings, provide
interactive maps, to summarize the substance of it in newsletters or in the
online version, etc. ....... There is little ambiguity in their intent.
____________________________________________________________________________
THE CALCULATIONS
They acknowledge
that half of the number in the forecast is accounted for already.
1) 433 units /723 people are accounted for in proposed units already
underway, like at the Baederwood Redstone, the Galman’s Jenkintown Flats, etc –
all seen on
see Chapt 7 pt 2 p2 & also on p5 –
2) 302 units / 740 people (on the same page/chart) would come from currently
undeveloped acreage all over the Township that they have calculated … (only
if it is developed) .
So nobody needs us to do anything for any of those in 1 or 2.
3) Then (oops… here’s the deception) they told you that 1446 people still needed
to be “ accommodated” and they had to build units somewhere to do that. Lucky
you! They have figured out that if they allow building on the parking lots at 4 shopping centers -seen
on page 7-they can nearly accomplish it. 1,227 people will fit there.
Lucky, lucky you!
Before
you celebrate this incredible “find” with them….. uh …. well ….. you
do realize that if they don’t
allow building on those parking lots then we
won’t have those 1,227 people. Problem solved!
So why can’t they just say: we want more people here – we want to build on
the parking lots – whaddya think? We represent you. So we care what you want us
to do.
If you don't want it , we won't build it.
Well – ok – It's not really a secret
that they already KNOW what you
think, except for a very few of you who are very bad at math or just happen to like
subsidizing developers and sitting in traffic and watching their greenspace
disappear. So tricking you seemed like an easier way to go. I mean...
who's even paying attention ?
In the final analysis :
We’re not "meeting" a forecasted number. We’re unnecessarily
"CREATING" a larger forecast. Deceptively.
____________________________________________________________________________
"Fraud involves the false representation of facts,
whether by intentionally withholding important information or providing false
statements to another party for the specific purpose of gaining something that
may not have been provided without the deception."
_____________________________________________________________________________
word
for word
Oh my – what a tangled
web we weave……..
They just are not
being honest with you. Here are
their exact words found
on
page 5
lest you don’t trust my interpretation:
“ Based on an average
household size, this
( 1 & 2) would result in the housing
of 1,463 people. However this is 1,446 less people than the forecasted
population growth of 2,911 in the township by 2045. Using the average household
size for multifamily units (1.67), we can calculate that
there is a need
for 866 new multifamily units (or for a combination of multifamily and
single-family units that would house an equivalent number of people)……
Underutilized space in existing
shopping centers could accommodate new residential growth..
Then they
list their plan for the Shopping Centers ----- Foxcroft -Pavillion 131 units on the parking lot in addition to the
104 going up now /// Noble Shopping
Center -Walgreens-Trader Joe’s - 297 units //
Abington
Towne Center across from Abington Pharmacy
236 units ///
and Roslyn
adjacent to Giant – 72 units
.
(1227 units in total – found in the chart on page 7)
They repeat on
p7:
“The
buildout analysis shows that nearly all of the forecasted population growth can
be accommodated under existing zoning, once all undeveloped land where
residential uses are permitted is built-out, and four shopping centers with
substantial surface parking (and where residential uses are permitted) undergo
significant infill development.”
They're not mentioning that they don't have any way of
forcing everyone with extra acreage to develop it - nor do they need to.
Some people like to have 2 lots and some greenspace around them. So
it is nonsense that they can determine how many units the
"undeveloped land will produce by 2045" --- and we don't need it to
produce anything. It doesn't benefit us in any way. Again, we have no line-up of people waiting, just
hopeful developers eyeing up the goodies.
BUT WAIT THERE'S MORE - LOTS
MORE
4) Now comes part 4 of the boondoggle. All under the banner of
the trumped up “need”,
you won’t believe the
massive
amount of OTHER over
development they are wanting to add in the mix – all in this Comprehensive Plan.
Yes, yes, the Plan is just a “vision” but, again, our Manager Richard Manfredi,
promises that zoning approvals will
match that “vision” as the requests are brought to the newly created Comprehensive Plan
Consistency Committee. So… for all practical purposes, pleases consider this
document every bit as good as a “zoning” document. They have made clear their
intent to use it that way.
And the plan is..to add Transit Oriented Districts with high density residential
and commercial within a 1/2 mi radius of a train or bus --- and
multi-family residentntial overlays within 1/4 mi of our Commercial/shopping
centers -- including ON the shopping centers.
5)
One more item from the Comp Plan numbers... In
Chapter 5 Page 4 )
we learn “Abington’s population stands at 58,502.
Decennial Census data shows that Abington’s population grew substantially from
the Victorian era (2,703 people in 1890) to its peak in 1970 (63,625).”
............So, OK
why do we need more housing if the population will not grow to be more than
63,625?
I firmly
believe this to be
a fully corrupt process because of the
withholding of information, and the overt efforts at deception in order to pass
it. Abington has the second-highest population density
(3,774 people per square mile) of all townships in Montgomery County-- (Chapter
5 Page 7 )
And this is a clear
lens view of how a beautiful community and beautiful neighborhoods can be
transformed into something wholly
undesirable. Many Philadelphia communities watched in horror as their community
or neighborhood declined, without anyone understanding HOW it happened.
THIS is how it happens.
IN
SUMMARY
1:
Residents of Abington have asked
repeatedly not to have the density increased unnecessarily.
2 : Residents have a right and a need to have all the documents & have all
their questions answered
3: Residents have a right to have meetings taped and
aired
and
all communication tools used to help them
4: Residents have a right to have an interactive map to see if they are in one
of the famous circles. (see the yellow map below)
5: Residents have a right to be told the
truth about “needs”
without
this kind of deception.
6: A vision that has been crafted in such a way that it becomes justification to
approve a zoning change without a
trip to the Zoning Hearing Board to become zoning, should require
notification of anyone affected,
just as they would be notified of a Zoning Hearing Board
hearing.
7:
Text and map amendments often affect
other properties and give those properties the same expanded rights --- as BET
did at the YMCA a few years ago.
Residents have a right to explore all the consequences of any zoning.
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO ?
---First be sure to tell me if you see any errors whatsoever.
---Then share this out with as many residents as
possible …. the link is
https://abingtoncitizens.com/page/PopulationConfusion.html
---I just got more signs – take a sign to inform others.
---If you agree with this,
please
send it to your
Commissioner and ask for an answer
IN WRITING - don’t accept a phone call. Tell them you want their answer to
be on the
public record and want to
share it.
If they refuse to answer you in writing,
please share that with us.
Ask about the
deceptions, the refusal to inform the public using the tools we pay for and that
no developer is ever denied the use of .
Tell
your Commissioner how you feel about the density and that the plan should NOT be
passed until the whole Township has been notified of the substance of the
“vision”,
since so much of the
Township will effectively have a “zoning change” and the rest of the Township
will be impacted by it. Tell them you want open
public Q&A sessions that everyone can attend
( can you guess who they try to cut out so they can tell you things that
aren’t quite true )
---Copy your letter to
Comprehensive
Plan Team Leaders
who refuse to answer
these questions.
Commissioner Mike Thompson
mthompson@abingtonpa.gov &
Planner Michael Narcowich
MNarcowi@montcopa.org
Here
is everyone’s contact info :
https://abingtoncitizens.com/TwpGovt/Commissioners.htm
SHOULD YOU CARE ?
Yes, of course, you should be upset about
how they are trying
to do this .
The population
numbers
could have been an error
that we can be shocked the “professionals” missed – but how they presented it to
you was no error – that part I am certain they understood. And they are trying
-hard - to keep the information away from the public so they can pass it before
enough the public understands what they are doing. They would not have to worry
about that, unless they were trying to get something they could not get without
the deception.
Again
- if you think
I’ve made an
error please, let me know.
I want
to be sure I don’t misspeak. I will
be
glad to re-explain parts that I may not have explained well.
THE TAZ MAP
DVRPC created a TAZ (Travel Analysis Zone) map to show where the
properties they put in their forecast would be located- also called a “migration
map “ because
(duh ) people migrate
to where the available housing is.
If
you add up all the numbers on the map you get :
2732 people .
179 shy of the
supposed 2911 forecast
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FIND THE TOWNSHIP INFO ON THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
HERE :
Draft
chapters are available for public viewing here-
https://www.abingtonpa.gov/government/board-of-commissioners/board-of-commissioners-intiatives/vision-2035-abington-s-comprehensive-plan-update
or here
Vision2035, Abington's Comprehensive Plan Update
| Abington Township, PA (abingtonpa.gov)
Here’s where you can find the most recent census figures –
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountypennsylvania
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And what if not enough people find out before they pass it?
